Our "Scattergun" Transfer Approach

[WexfordTownSpur]

I've read an awful lot (since it's all gone wrong, at least) on here and in the press about how last summer's transfer approach was "scattergun" leaving us with an average and unbalanced squad. I confess that I am one of the many people who couldn't believe what was happening when we were spending the Bale money and could only foresee good things for this season. Ok, I was somewhat wrong there but I'm still baffled by the aforementioned accusation as to me there was a very clear plan to our transfers.

We start with a small analysis of AVB's system and how he deployed it (with much success) at Porto.

As we know, it was a very clear 4-3-3 with the front six usually consisting of the following:

------------Fernando------------
-----Guarin-------Moutinho-----
-----------------------------------
Hulk-----------------------Varela
--------------Falcao--------------
​

As we know though, modern football is concerned more with roles than positions, so a quick reminder of those is in order...
Fernando - DM. Protect the defence, win ball, pass simple. When attacking, drop in between the centre backs allowing the full backs to get forward.
Guarin - Box to box midfielder, defensively sound while offering attacking threat.
Moutinho - Playmaker. Take ball from less technically able players and make things happen, either through passing or by carrying the ball forward.
Hulk - Inverted wide forward. Drift inside as much as possible to support the striker and offer a goal threat.
Varela - Inverted winger. Stay wider but seek to offer more creativity than the battering ram on the other side.
Falcao - No.9. Make space for others with clever running. Loiter in and around the box. Score.

Now, consider the midfielders and forwards that we ended last season with:

Sandro
Huddlestone
Livermore
Parker
Dembélé
Holtby
Carroll
Lennon
Bale
Bentley
Sigurđsson
Falqué
Townsend
Adebayor
Dempsey
Kane

Out of that lot, the closest we could have got to the Porto system was probably:

-------------Sandro-------------
----Dembélé-----Huddlestone--
-----------------------------------
Bale-----------------------Falqué
------------Adebayor--------------
​

Not bad, but hardly going to set the world alight (especially with uncertainty over Sandro's return and Bale's future). Not only that, but the backup is far from stellar (Parker in place of Sandro? Livermore for Dembélé? Dempsey for Adebayor?)

So let's consider the transfers:
Out
Huddlestone - Good passer of the ball, but not overly creative or quick thinking. Reasonable sale for good money.
Livermore - Jack of all trades, master of none. Passable backup to either Sandro or Dembélé but certainly possible to improve upon. Reasonable loan/sale for good money.
Parker - Had seemingly lost the plot. Great bloke but needed to be improved upon. Reasonable sale for good money.
Bale - Ultimately unavoidable.
Bentley - Would anyone have kept him?!
Dempsey - Decent player who scored a fair few goals but doesn't really fit the system. Reasonable sale for good money.
Carroll/Falqué - Reasonable loans for first team football.

So what were we left needing?

1. A quality box to box midfielder to rotate with Dembélé (who we knew would miss games through his hip injury).
2. A quality DM to rotate with Sandro (who had an extremely serious injury).
3. A quality playmaker with the ability to both pass and drive forward with the ball.
4. Wide players to fulfil both the a) Hulk and b) Varela roles.
5. An intelligent penalty box striker to replace/rotate with Adebayor who had had a stinker of a season.

And what did we get?

1. Paulinho - A nailed on Brazilian international starter. Best player at the Confederations Cup.
2. Capoue - Those on here who watch Ligue 1 were extremely excited about this signing. Few doubted his quality before his injury.
3. Eriksen - Pretty much the most highly rated young playmaker in Europe with another (Holtby) in reserve.
4. This is where things alter slightly. Presumably due to the availability of players, the roles switched flanks and we bought in a) Chadli and b) Lamela. Some were underwhelmed with the Chadli signing but when you consider his physical attributes and positional abilities he fits that Hulk role very well. Lamela was one of the most highly rated young players in the world and had just top-scored in Serie A. Very skilful and creative, he fits that Varela role perfectly.
5. Soldado. Knew where the goal was. Runs well. Scored goals. About the best we could have hoped for.

Suddenly, we're in a position to field:

------------Sandro------------
---Paulinho--------Eriksen----
--------------------------------
Lamela------------------Chadli
------------Soldado------------
​

or in the worst injury crisis:

------------Capoue------------
---Dembélé---------Holtby----
---------------------------------
Townsend------------Sigurđsson
------------Adebayor------------
​

I am surely not the only person that can see significant improvement there, not only in personnel but also in suitability for the system. Hardly "scattergun".

I think Baldini did an overall superb job. The only mystery is why AVB didn't practise the system that he preached now that he had been provided with the personnel.

Re: the defence. If AVB didn't fancy Caulker, why not replace him with Romania's captain while making a profit? Only 4 CB's you say? Capoue had played perfectly well there in the past. The only problem was LB, but how did we know that Jan was going to be such a gimp about being asked to play there? Rose had just had a pretty good season on loan at Sunderland and had earnt his chance just as Walker had done before him. I'm in the Naughton-supporter ranks and think he is more than adequate cover for Walker (who rarely gets injured or requires a rest anyway).

But think we have seen that system a few times - yes only once or twice with Lamela, but we have seen it with lennon or Townsend in his place.

I don't think it is the system, I think it is that Paulinho, Chadli and especially Soldado have not lived up to the billing - Erikson is the only player that has been good, and even he has been hit and miss. Also sorry but you can not compare the two teams below in my opinion - even fit and on form it comes up short against the porto lineup.



------------Sandro------------
---Paulinho--------Eriksen----
--------------------------------
Lamela------------------Chadli
------------Soldado---

------------Fernando------------
-----Guarin-------Moutinho-----
-----------------------------------
Hulk-----------------------Varela
--------------Falcao--​

 

[hellava_tough]

Can't see that that would make choose 4231 over 433 though ?

Well they're similar formations, but 4231 could be argued is more defensive with 2 sitting players, than 433

 

[nicdic]

Great OP, and exactly why we only need minimal changes this window. A manager, a left back, and replacing any players that leave.

I still have confidence that the suffering seven will be fine, they just need time.


And a manager.

 

[TheGreenLily]

Great OP, and exactly why we only need minimal changes this window. A manager, a left back, and replacing any players that leave.

I still have confidence that the suffering seven will be fine, they just need time.


And a manager.

Don't forget 2-3 CBs, seeing as Kaboul could be retiring due to injury, Verts maybe off, the question over dawson... Maybe another LB (2 in total), then promote the youth like Cellebos, Carroll, Fredricks etc.

Especially if LVG comes, I would want our youth players with him, so they will actually progress.

We can make a lot of changes, without actually buying (apart from in defence)... Adn remove player like Lennon, Townsend, Rose, Naughton... ETC.

This Summer could be amazing, but is if someone who is smart enough comes and does what really is needed.

 

[nicdic]

Don't forget 2-3 CBs, seeing as Kaboul could be retiring due to injury, Verts maybe off, the question over dawson... Maybe another LB (2 in total), then promote the youth like Cellebos, Carroll, Fredricks etc.

Especially if LVG comes, I would want our youth players with him, so they will actually progress.

We can make a lot of changes, without actually buying (apart from in defence)... Adn remove player like Lennon, Townsend, Rose, Naughton... ETC.

This Summer could be amazing, but is if someone who is smart enough comes and does what really is needed.

We only need 2-3 centre backs if 2-3 centre backs leave. And we only need one left back.

 

[TheGreenLily]

We only need 2-3 centre backs if 2-3 centre backs leave. And we only need one left back.

Depends on what happens with BAE and how he will get on with someone like LVG (if comes), if BAE comes back.

Rose I don't class a LB, or even barely a professional footballer.

I still think we need 1 CB at least, as I hold reservations over Dawson.

 

[nicdic]

Depends on what happens with BAE and how he will get on with someone like LVG (if comes), if BAE comes back.

Rose I don't class a LB, or even barely a professional footballer.

I still think we need 1 CB at least, as I hold reservations over Dawson.

BAE won't be sticking around regardless of who comes in. He's pulled no trees in the Championship.

Rose is fine for back up, so we need a left back.

Again we'll only buy centre backs if any leave. I find it highly unlikely that Dawson will get sold. Kaboul is back playing regularly and his contract has another year. And I don't see Vertonghen leaving if we out Sherwood.

 

[TheGreenLily]

BAE won't be sticking around regardless of who comes in. He's pulled no trees in the Championship.

Rose is fine for back up, so we need a left back.

Again we'll only buy centre backs if any leave. I find it highly unlikely that Dawson will get sold. Kaboul is back playing regularly and his contract has another year. And I don't see Vertonghen leaving if we out Sherwood.

I know, I was merely remembering the ITK (I know, with a pinch of salt) regarding his retirement.

There was ITK last year as well that said Kabouls knees had gone, similar to Ledley and "if" that is the case, I would rather nip that bud right here right now. Not leave it year after year and not bringing in any replacement, because on the off chance he maybe fit again.

I just don't want another King situation. I love the guys, but we need a stable pairing at CB, something which both Dawson and Kaboul can't bring, just too many injuries between them, IMO.

 

[SpartanSpur]

Assuming LVG comes in and looks to play a variation of 4-3-3 then new player wise we should only need a LB and in my opinion a left winger/forward.

Then simply replace any relevant outgoings:-

LB - Blind? Shaw will be out of reach
LW - Tricky one, could try and use Townsend or Chadli there but not sure if good enough. Konoplyanka if Liverpool cock it up again? Lallana a pipe dream.
ST - Ade/Soldado out > Lukaku in?
GK - Lloris out (please no) - Marshall/Begovic in?
CB - Vertonghen/Kaboul out - Caulker in?

Playmaker - Could try Eriksen/Holtby in this role in a 4-3-3. If we lose a couple of midfielders (Sig/Capoue/Paulinho) I like the look of Kovacic.

Nothing crazy required, just some smart activity on the manager and player front.

 

[Bobbins]

I am surely not the only person that can see significant improvement there, not only in personnel but also in suitability for the system. Hardly "scattergun".

I think Baldini did an overall superb job. The only mystery is why AVB didn't practise the system that he preached now that he had been provided with the personnel.

I completely agree and the second line is ultimately what it comes down to, and why I was so critical of him - AVB simply refused, for whatever reason, to actually pick the players that had been bought for him.

I am fed up with the criticism of Baldini both on here and in the media - the guy did exactly what was asked of him. I'm happy that Broomfield has been brought back as head scout, but Baldini secured some quality talent in the summer and did all the dirty work Levy has said himself he doesn't want to do anymore.

Your line-ups there are almost exactly what I've been begging us to play all season.

There is simply no accounting for two managers basically going berzerk and refusing to play our best players in our strongest line-ups.

As you also say, the only failure in the summer was not buying a new LB - but I don't think any of us could've envisioned just how awful Rose was going to be after a strong season with Sunderland, and I was always against the exile of Benny.

AVB shot himself in the foot, repeatedly, with his banishment of players like BAE and Ade, his refusal to play the players he had, and mystifying decisions like dropping Lamela for three games after a MotM performance and then giving him 90 minutes away against City.

Great post.

 

[kr1978]

One of the best OPs I have read on here. I really hope that whoever comes in this summer (Sherwood is surely gone??) doesn't mess about with the squad too much. We can't have another summer of complete upheaval otherwise we will be looking at writing off another season.

I don't want any of last summers signings sold and genuinely believe they will, mostly, be much better next year with a years experience in the PL and most importantly a strong manager who everyone knows is here for a while and in charge. The way most of them have been treated at Spurs by AVB and Tim is ridiculous and it really is no wonder that none of them seem to have settled in properly, apart from Eriksen (although we still haven't seen the best from him either). A couple of top quality additions is all we need and next season should be a lot brighter.

 

[SandroClegane]

Depends on what happens with BAE and how he will get on with someone like LVG (if comes), if BAE comes back.

Rose I don't class a LB, or even barely a professional footballer.

I still think we need 1 CB at least, as I hold reservations over Dawson.

How do you not rate Rose but you still rate Benny who doesn't stand out in the championship?

 

[TheGreenLily]

How do you not rate Rose but you still rate Benny who doesn't stand out in the championship?

Who said I rate BAE?

Which is why earlier in the thread I said we need to get 2 LB's

 

[Bobbins]

How do you not rate Rose but you still rate Benny who doesn't stand out in the championship?

BAE's come out in the last week saying he wants to come back to Spurs not least because the ball is actually on the floor for some of the game, unlike the Championship.

A player not shining in the Championship is no indication that he can't cut it in the Premier League, and similarly him lighting it up down there is no assurance of success either.

Also, this is all irrelevant when BAE has already had several seasons of success in the PL anyway.

 

[TheGreenLily]

I completely agree and the second line is ultimately what it comes down to, and why I was so critical of him - AVB simply refused, for whatever reason, to actually pick the players that had been bought for him.

I am fed up with the criticism of Baldini both on here and in the media - the guy did exactly what was asked of him. I'm happy that Broomfield has been brought back as head scout, but Baldini secured some quality talent in the summer and did all the dirty work Levy has said himself he doesn't want to do anymore.

Your line-ups there are almost exactly what I've been begging us to play all season.

There is simply no accounting for two managers basically going berzerk and refusing to play our best players in our strongest line-ups.

As you also say, the only failure in the summer was not buying a new LB - but I don't think any of us could've envisioned just how awful Rose was going to be after a strong season with Sunderland, and I was always against the exile of Benny.

AVB shot himself in the foot, repeatedly, with his banishment of players like BAE and Ade, his refusal to play the players he had, and mystifying decisions like dropping Lamela for three games after a MotM performance and then giving him 90 minutes away against City.

Great post.

That was understandable, Ade shot himself in the foot with his own actions and most likely BAE.

We all scream for justice when players do something wrong, but then when they do get punished for the crime, then manager gets slaughtered for miss management.

but I like the rest of the post though

 

[Spurger King]

How do you not rate Rose but you still rate Benny who doesn't stand out in the championship?

With the exception of pace, Benny is a better footballer than Rose in pretty much every way. Rose isn't even particularly fast, and does absolutely nothing with the ball.

I'd take Benny performing at 50% over Rose every day of the week.

 

[SpursDave88]

Surely the secret of management is actually managing, banishing players that can be helpful to you or forcing them out is not managing, it's hiding. Imagine if one of us did this in the work place. Managing is about getting the best out of the players at your disposal and if managed well, an unwanted player should believe he is wanted until he is told a bid for him has been accepted.

 

[nicdic]

Surely the secret of management is actually managing, banishing players that can be helpful to you or forcing them out is not managing, it's hiding. Imagine if one of us did this in the work place. Managing is about getting the best out of the players at your disposal and if managed well, an unwanted player should believe he is wanted until he is told a bid for him has been accepted.

Bit different. In your office, I expect if Ade and BAE had been there they'd have got the sack. You can't just sack multi million pound footballers. And no one wanted to buy either of them.

I'm glad Ade has come back into the fold. But all the revisionism about how AVB should have integrated him before is ridiculous. Last season everyone hated him and the beginning of this because he was unprofessional. Everything points towards him showing little to no respect to AVB who was his manager, he rightly had to be punished.

 

[SpursDave88]

Bit different. In your office, I expect if Ade and BAE had been there they'd have got the sack. You can't just sack multi million pound footballers. And no one wanted to buy either of them.

I'm glad Ade has come back into the fold. But all the revisionism about how AVB should have integrated him before is ridiculous. Last season everyone hated him and the beginning of this because he was unprofessional. Everything points towards him showing little to no respect to AVB who was his manager, he rightly had to be punished.

The flip side of this, is that Ade has worked under two of the world's best managers in Wenger and Mourinho and had he been paying attention, would have a good idea of what constitutes good preparation and training for a top level team.

 

[Matrix]

I think our problem was that the way we played was integral on VDV and Modric and Bale. We sold both of those in one pre season and replaced with entirely different alternatives in Dembele and Dempsey. There our identity on how we had played for te last few seasons had gone and we have been clueless every since. We have never bought like for like unfortunately.
Sell carrick and buy Zokora
Sell Berba and buy Pav
Sell Bale and buy Lamela. I rate Lamela just to add