What's more likely this season: top 4 or win EL?

[Ashley1974]

Being Spurs, we will probably finish 4th, only for Arsenal to win the EL and kick us out of the CL.

1 league can have maximum 5 representatives in the CL. So this scenario you suggest only happens if another English team wins the CL as well and is outside the top 4 as well - i.e. fucking Liverpool!

To be clear:
if we finish 4th and Arsenal win the EL, we get CL football (unless Liverpool with the CL as well), then the 5 CL places go to:
The EL winners
the CL winners
and the top 3 prem.

4th spot would then get us EL next season.

League Cup winners get Europa Conference League next season. So finishing 4th in the above scenario would promote us from ECL to EL.

(I felt sick whilst typing all of the above )

Edit - I see a few of you have answered this already

 

[Ashley1974]

That looks accurate but toss in there that West Ham will face united in the league. They will face Leicester in the league. So because of that, the likelihood of West Ham winning all but one vs. Chelsea is extremely small. Same for Chelsea who face Leicester in the league. And City in the league. Not impossible that those two clubs will beat everyone, I agree. But statistically an oddity for sure.

oh I totally agree they neither of them will win all their games, but then neither will we. But the above is the worst case scenario. Basically we need all teams around us to draw when they place each other

 

[Ashley1974]

Apologies if already mentioned but us finishing outside the Top 4 & winning the EL wouldn’t invalidate qualification for the CL for the 4th placed PL team. The PL can have 5 teams in next years CL and it would take another PL outside the Top 4 to win this years CL (Liverpool?) to make that happen.

Both Chelsea and Liverpool have the potential to finish outside the top 4 and win the Champions League.

Then there’s us, Arsenal, and United who could finish outside of the top 4 and win the Europa League (I wouldn’t rule United as a sure Top 4 finisher yet).

Wouldn't it be nice if Spurs winning the EL fucked up one of our rivals from getting CL football for a change!

 

[Athenspur]

There are plenty of good non-English teams left in the EL, but almost none of them would have a prayer for top-4 if they played in the EPL.
The Spanish representatives are especially weak, the Germans are gone, and the Roma v Shakhtar & ManUtd v Milan pairings take two of the strongest opponents out of the equation.
Not sure Arsenal will make it past Olympiacos either. I am going all out on voodoos tonight here in Greece. Almost worked in the Benfica game in the same venue, and did certainly work in 2020!
Playing well we have a great chance of winning the thing. As noted above, we have many "fringe" players wo are better suited for the European style (Dele, Winks, Lo Celso, even Vinicius), certainly good enough to count on. The team is healthy, and finding its feet. Mou's tactics are borderline useless at home, but they still work in Europe.
That said, we won't beat anyone if we play like we did 1-2 months ago. Not even Zagreb.
The Spurs of the last 3 1/2 EPL games can do it, no question. Not sure we'll have a better chance.
Just take everyone seriously and play full strength XI's, please.

 

[Ashley1974]

Cannot believe this poll is close. We are just outside the top 4 with 11 matches to play. The Europa League is now a knockout competition with 16 of the best teams in Europe.

This is not even a comparison, Jesus Christ. If we win the Europa League it will be one of the best days in our history.

I don't think anyone is saying the EL is easy, the question put to us is which is more likely. Considering we could win every one of our Prem matches and still not make top 4 (on GD, I've done the maths - see above) that says to me that we are 'more likely' to get CL football by winning a knock out comp against teams that in the main are not as good as those challenging us for a top 4 spot.

totally agree with the bit in bold