What's more likely this season: top 4 or win EL?

[dontcallme]

Not going to give the option of neither.

We are currently 7th and 5 points behind Chelsea in 4th and we have a game in hand.

We have played the same amount of games as West Ham and Everton and we're 3 points behind West Ham and 1 point behind Everton.

We're 8 points behind Leicester and we have a game in hand. A lot to catch up but Rodgers has a history of weak finishes and Leicester have had some bad results recently.

We're into the final 16 of the EL and have Dinamo Zagreb next round.

The likes of Ajax, Man Utd, AC Milan and Arsenal are still in the competition.

So if we are to get into the CL next season what is our most likely route?

 

[carpediem991]

More likely: Top 4

More lovely: Win EL

Most Spursy: Neither

 

[CookieYiddo]

I voted top 4. Would prefer to win the EL (trophy and CL in one lovely package) but based on our trophy hall of the last decade I think we are more likely to sneak the top 4.

 

[Bulletspur]

Top 4 is more likely, although I would prefer the Europa cup

 

[shelfboy68]

I think that the chance of top is dependent on how we do in Europe, if we can get through to the semi finals then I think we should go balls out to win it, if instead we drop out then maybe we could put a run together in the league especially as everyone is chipping in with goals.

 

[smallsnc]

I think we will get Top 4 in the end, but also think we have a decent chance of winning EL now that we have a 3rd attacker creating and finishing goals. Sunday is big as we need teams against the lower clubs.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

I think equally likely/unlikely at this point. Will change drastically after the next round in each competition. I always thought all season that we could do either.

 

[WiganSpur]

I think both are probably more unlikely than people think. I actually think the League Cup is the likeliest scenario because if we perform on the day there's no reason why we can't win it.

I'm gonna say the most likely outcome is to finish in the EL spots or worse, not win the EL and also lose the final. In terms of success though i'd say the latter is the most likely, followed by an EL win, followed by a top 4 spot.

 

[Styopa]

We don't need to win many more games to win the Europa League. A mixture of wins, draws, defeats and even penalty shoot-outs could be enough. Whereas we probably need to win the bulk of our league games for top four. That may be relevant.

 

[Spursmatty87]

I feel that one of United and Milan going out is a good thing. Not sure there is anyone else to fear in EL.

The league is harder to call. Chelsea might drop slightly with CL coming back but will it be enough Leicester going out of EL could help them.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

We don't need to win many more games to win the Europa League. A mixture of wins, draws, defeats and even penalty shoot-outs could be enough. Whereas we probably need to win the bulk of our league games for top four. That may be relevant.

Very good point. We can reach the final but drawing every single match before it. We can’t reach top 4 by drawing too many matches.

I also think that many teams play a different style of footie in the EL than say a mid table
PL team does in the league. And that shift in style may suit us, I see players like Lo Celso, Dele and Winks benefitting from a typical EL match day.

 

[Tucker]

I think a lot people are underestimating just how hard it will be to win the Europa league. If we do it’ll be right up there with any other of the clubs achievements since the sixties (Double aside.)

Top four won’t be easy either, we’ve given ourselves a massive mountain to climb with our poor for, since late December. It’s good to see we are putting wins together now, but there’s a long way to go yet.

 

[chrissivad]

Feel like Europa is more in our hand.
To get top 4, we will need other results to go for us as well.

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

I think a lot people are underestimating just how hard it will be to win the Europa league. If we do it’ll be right up there with any other of the clubs achievements since the sixties (Double aside.)

What makes you say that?

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

Feel like Europa is more in our hand.
To get top 4, we will need other results to go for us as well.

Surely that goes for EL too? For instance if one team does a surprise and defeats one of the front runners, that will benefit us. It’s at this stage we’ll really see changes in our probabilities from the result in other clashes.

 

[gavspur]

I’d prefer the Europa win and subsequent CL qualifying from that. Trophy and CL. Excellent. It would also make 4th spot team drop out due to our win, which makes me happy in a delayed karma kinda way.
What is more likely tho? Hmmph, I have no idea as they are both, I would say, as easy or as difficult as we make them.

 

[buckley]

The way that Chelsea and West Ham keep on winning I would edge towards the EUROPA rather than 4 th although both seem perhaps beyond us . What I do know is that early in the season my son said those 4 or five drawn games we should have won were going to bite us on the bum because those extra 10 points would have made us almost certainties for 4th place .

 

[wrd]

The Europa league would kill 2 birds with one stone so obviously I'd much prefer that plus we get the supercup final so that's a cherry on top. With top4 however you get 3 bites of the cherry. We have 11 Games left, our rivals occupying those spots all have 10.

So at most if we win our game in hand we're 6 points behind. We've seen over the last week how quickly you can gain 5/6 points on rivals over a couple of games plus we still play United and Leicester which means we have guaranteed opportunities to have game weeks where we gain 3 points on them respectively. So I'd say Top4 is probably the more realistic given those variables and that there's 3 spots available compared to the 1. The cup has that element of being right on the day and so there's less margin to have an off day.

 

[Llord Flashheart]

Surely that goes for EL too? For instance if one team does a surprise and defeats one of the front runners, that will benefit us. It’s at this stage we’ll really see changes in our probabilities from the result in other clashes.

On the face of it, it is technically in our hands, winning every game in the EL means we win it (obviously) but winning every remaining game in the league doesn't guarantee us top 4, and this is the 'on the face of it' but, we've still to play United, Everton, and Leicester who sit above us, them all winning their games, besides against us, means they still finish above us..... but then I checked who's to play who, above and around them (above us), and us winning every game in the league should see us sneak to four as they'll all drop points somewhere (but we have to win every game ?)

Leicester; MC, WH, MU, CHE, TH
Chelsea; WH, MC, LEI
WH; MU, LEI, CHE, EVE
Everton: WH, TH, MC

TL;DR: maths baby ?
Or pessimistically, we'll find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (I'm too long supporting this beautiful club to think differently, I'm sorry ?)

Edit: I didn't answer the OP question!
I think/ hope we'll win the EL.
I'd rather win the EL every day of the week than come fourth (one we're not relegated), the whole race for the top 4 is such a phony bunch of shite, there's no trophy, winning the EL gives you the same reward of CL plus a shiny pot that says we're frickin' winners!!

 

[Everlasting Seconds]

On the face of it, it is technically in our hands, winning every game in the EL means we win it (obviously) but winning every remaining game in the league doesn't guarantee us top 4

Yeah, and also of importance is that if we progress to the next EL round, we know that already one of United/Milan and one of Roma/Shakthar will be entirely out of the competition. Maybe more top contenders will too. If we win next round in the league, that will be great but there will still be as many teams fighting for the same spots over many more rounds. So chances of winning EL will increase much more drastically by each
single round you win.