- Mar 18, 2004
- 5,298
- 4,189
Hey folks, I had a hour spare in work today so put on my statto hat and came up with some figures for how the season might progress. I thought I may as well share them with you all.....
In the last 12 games of last season we won 9 of them and lost 3, giving us 27 pts over 12 games - which was a fantastic run in leaving us finishing the season with 70 pts. We were also in the FA cup (for some of it) last season which was a distraction for sure. The last game of the season we didn't have to win and was one of the 3 losses.
If we were to repeat this form we would finish this season on 74 pts as we have 4 more pts now than this time last year. I think we will need a minimum of 70 pts to get fourth this season as well.
It will be difficult to repeat that form because we don't seem to be playing as well, have a large in jury list and our strikers can't buy a goal. Also, progress in the CL will surely distract the players as there are a lot of games between now and a possible final.
There is a marked difference between our premier league pts tally if you compare games that are adjacent to CL matches and games that aren't....
To prove my point :-
We have played 8 Champions league games this season. 2 against Young Boys and 6 group 1 games.
In the 9 premier league matches played a few days BEFORE each match (I'm including Saturday's match at Sunderland) you could see some players were not as focussed and had one eye on the champions league. We gained 15 pts from those games.
In the 8 premier games played directly after out CL fixtures we gained 14 pts. But we cannot include the win away at Stoke as it was sandwiched in between the 2 Young Boys fixtures and is included as one of the 8 games played before (above). So the stat is 11 pts from 7 games.
That's a total of 26 pts from 16 games, or 1.625 pts average per game.
In the other 10 premier league matches that should have been unaffected by champions league distractions, we gained a total of 21 pts. I did not factor in the other cup competitions as the team was rotated in parts and the players did not seem bothered about these competitions this season, which is why we are out of them and why they should not have affected our focus on the league. That is an average of 2.1 pts per game, a marked improvement.
So that tells me that the CL has indeed had an effect on our premier league form even though the media only focus on the games played afterwards. If we had been able to keep the 2.1 pts per game form up for the 16 CL games we would have gained an extra 7.6 pts already this season and would be sitting 2nd in the league 2 or 3 pts behind ManU.
Now, if we continued with the poorer CL form for the premier league in the last 12 games of the season we would finish the season on 66/67 pts (66.5) which would have meant just missing out on fourth last season. If we continued averaging the better 2.1 pts per game we would finish the season on 72 pts and would keep our 4th spot.
It'll be a hard ask either way but it'll be the silver lining I take from a bad result tonight.....
COYS.
In the last 12 games of last season we won 9 of them and lost 3, giving us 27 pts over 12 games - which was a fantastic run in leaving us finishing the season with 70 pts. We were also in the FA cup (for some of it) last season which was a distraction for sure. The last game of the season we didn't have to win and was one of the 3 losses.
If we were to repeat this form we would finish this season on 74 pts as we have 4 more pts now than this time last year. I think we will need a minimum of 70 pts to get fourth this season as well.
It will be difficult to repeat that form because we don't seem to be playing as well, have a large in jury list and our strikers can't buy a goal. Also, progress in the CL will surely distract the players as there are a lot of games between now and a possible final.
There is a marked difference between our premier league pts tally if you compare games that are adjacent to CL matches and games that aren't....
To prove my point :-
We have played 8 Champions league games this season. 2 against Young Boys and 6 group 1 games.
In the 9 premier league matches played a few days BEFORE each match (I'm including Saturday's match at Sunderland) you could see some players were not as focussed and had one eye on the champions league. We gained 15 pts from those games.
In the 8 premier games played directly after out CL fixtures we gained 14 pts. But we cannot include the win away at Stoke as it was sandwiched in between the 2 Young Boys fixtures and is included as one of the 8 games played before (above). So the stat is 11 pts from 7 games.
That's a total of 26 pts from 16 games, or 1.625 pts average per game.
In the other 10 premier league matches that should have been unaffected by champions league distractions, we gained a total of 21 pts. I did not factor in the other cup competitions as the team was rotated in parts and the players did not seem bothered about these competitions this season, which is why we are out of them and why they should not have affected our focus on the league. That is an average of 2.1 pts per game, a marked improvement.
So that tells me that the CL has indeed had an effect on our premier league form even though the media only focus on the games played afterwards. If we had been able to keep the 2.1 pts per game form up for the 16 CL games we would have gained an extra 7.6 pts already this season and would be sitting 2nd in the league 2 or 3 pts behind ManU.
Now, if we continued with the poorer CL form for the premier league in the last 12 games of the season we would finish the season on 66/67 pts (66.5) which would have meant just missing out on fourth last season. If we continued averaging the better 2.1 pts per game we would finish the season on 72 pts and would keep our 4th spot.
It'll be a hard ask either way but it'll be the silver lining I take from a bad result tonight.....
COYS.