Player Watch Player Watch: Giovani Lo Celso

[ralphs bald spot]

The bookies odds of something happening is them offering their probability.
If they offered me 2/1 on an event that's 50% going to happen, that's good value for me. Finding your probability and weighing it against their probability (the odds) is how to determine 'good value'.
With transfers it's different but I was just replying to the statement of 'that's not how odds work' when infact it is.

The trouble for the market on transfers is that they are a very small market and that can lead to swings influenced by relatively little money

 

[Roynie]

I disagree, it’s a clear indication that some people have more money than sense

Only some people?!

 

[Living Legend Colm G]

It's 1/100 That this betting bollocks is boring the arse off this thread.

 

[npearl4spurs]

Thread should be locked until new ITK or a new (reliable) report. He's on holiday now FFS.

 

[Ronwol196061]

Odds usually go down when there is positive news and people put money down on it
They go out when there is no news
So news is part of the package

Thread should be locked until new ITK or a new (reliable) report. He's on holiday now FFS.

10-1 bar 2

 

[Yid-ol]

Thread should be locked until new ITK or a new (reliable) report. He's on holiday now FFS.

So was ndombele

 

[worcestersauce]

All it reflects is that it has all gone quiet so the excitement has died down which is also reflected in the activity on this thread, two weeks ago this place was buzzing but now bugger all. Hopefully it will have a reason to pick up again soon but until then why not just enjoy the sunshine

 

[absolute bobbins]

Thread should be locked until new ITK or a new (reliable) report. He's on holiday now FFS.

If only there was a way to get from your holiday destination to London and then return to your holiday

 

[Ossie'sAardvark]

Thread should be locked until new ITK or a new (reliable) report. He's on holiday now FFS.

It'd move to the Ali thread.

 

[guiltyparty]

It's exactly how odds work and how to determine value if the probability is greater than the odds perceive

There is nothing to do with percentage chance or probability in odds at all. It’s purely transactional - money on. That’s it

 

[Deleted member 29446]

At 200 pages was where the things with Ndombele went viral. So keep spamming your betting bollocks please

 

[doctor stefan Freud]

At 200 pages was where the things with Ndombele went viral. So keep spamming your sweating bollocks please

Scandinavian filth

 

[malin]

There is nothing to do with percentage chance or probability in odds at all. It’s purely transactional - money on. That’s it

Not that I’m looking to continue this discussion, but I’ve seen this assertion a number of times on this site and it’s quite clearly incorrect.

When a bookie prices up an event, e.g. Spurs v Man City, it’s based on statistical analysis. The bookies have models that analyse a significant amount of data to create the initial odds, reflecting the percentage chance of each outcome.

The odds can subsequently change dependent on a number of factors, which includes but not limited to, weight of money.

Obviously the markets for player transfers are different in the sense that the bookies don’t have a raft of reliable data to rely so these are very speculative. Additionally they are very small markets, most people will be lucky if they can get a tenner on without being restricted.

 

[Hakkz]

Scandinavian filth

Racist.

 

[Seafordian Spurs]

It's very quiet which means it's close.

I hope.

 

[$hoguN]

Can those people who continue to want to discuss betting odds kindly fuck off and not keep clogging up a thread on a player, namely Lo Celso. Ta muchly.

 

[MightyModric]

Can those people who continue to want to discuss betting odds kindly fuck off and not keep clogging up a thread on player, Lo Celso. Ta muchly.

Ha yeah right

Odds on that happening are about 100/1

 

[Musathfc28]

It's gone quiet on the itk front either a good sign that things are being worked on or we're stuck in limbo hopefully some good news today

 

[stewartd]

It's very quiet which means it's close.

I hope.

Its gone quiet because things have returned to the normal Spurs way.
We earned about £50 million more then we anticipated by making CL final and have spent it.
Now we return to normal no more buying until we sell.
But thats not so bad we only have to sell
Eriksen
Wanyama
Trippier
Aurier
Onamah
to be able to afoord two more mid fielders and a good right back
And as all of the above are in great demand its easy peasy
Dont ho;d your breath

 

[stonebrow]

It's gone quiet on the itk front either a good sign that things are being worked on or we're stuck in limbo hopefully some good news today

Herc said GLC was very close and that was last Thursday so hopefully an update will come in soon on that one.