Race for The Top 10

Wils · Jul 13, 2020

BringBack_leGin said:
No longer the case:

If the FA Cup winners qualify for the UEFA Champions League or the UEFA Europa League via the domestic league or European performance, by Regulation 3.04,[6] the highest ranking non-qualified league club qualifies, taking the lowest Europa League spot (the League Cup spot – the League Cup inherits the League spot, and the League inherits the FA Cup spot).

Apologies hadn't realised it had changed!

JayB · Jul 13, 2020

MattPhilpott said:
Really not that opposed to a season or two in the EL at all!

I think the position that our team is currently in is a state of transition and regeneration, and the Europa League gives us a fantastic opportunity to do that...
With the PL and CL, every game is such high stakes, and rarely allows teams to experiment with young players and rotate...which I think has contributed to our large quantity of injuries over the last few years due to lack of depth..

The Group Stages (and arguably the last 32) gives you 6-8 games to really integrate youngsters into the team...the likes of Parrot, Skipp, Tanganga, Cirkin, Sess, White, allll could see some serious minutes and get more confidence and skill in their game.
It means as well that those long trips to Tbilisi, Moscow, Baku etc..gives us an opportunity to leave Kane, Son, Gio etc at home and give them rest that they need.

Looking at how Arsenal got Saka, Willock,
AMN, Nelson etc into the team, the EL played a big part in that...

Realistically, we are not good enough at the moment to win the CL, so having a good go at the EL for the next couple of years is an ideal situation for us I think!

Absolutely spot on. I'm of the mind that we need to have a pretty significant squad refresh focused mostly around young talents, which dovetails perfectly with a season or two in the EL. As we've seen with promising youngsters like Sessegnon and Skipp, being in the CL makes it very difficult for them to break through as nearly all of our matches are high stakes and our managers have been averse to risking unproven players in that setting.

We've been strongly linked with a list of players who are either young, from a lesser league, or both. Being in the EL would allow us to integrate players of that nature much more readily than having no European competition at all. It'd also be a big boost financially and an opportunity for a trophy that Mourinho loves to win, not to mention a second route to CL qualification. I sincerely hope we manage to get to sixth.

Escher · Jul 13, 2020

Ah well, shame about the City decision, I was hoping they would only get a reduction to 1 year ban.

So unless Norwich take points off Chelsea tomorrow (even a draw would do) it's Europa League for us. And I do think we should make sure we qualify for that, since the last time (2009-10) we were out of European competition really hurt our UEFA coefficient (we are currently ranked between Dortmund and Chelsea https://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2020 )

It might not be a bad year to qualify for Europa, since a second pandemic spike anywhere on the continent may result in a shortened competition, but clubs would still get a fair share of ranking points for the season

Marty · Jul 13, 2020

Escher said:
Ah well, shame about the City decision, I was hoping they would only get a reduction to 1 year ban.

So unless Norwich take points off Chelsea tomorrow (even a draw would do) it's Europa League for us. And I do think we should make sure we qualify for that, since the last time (2009-10) we were out of European competition really hurt our UEFA coefficient (we are currently ranked between Dortmund and Chelsea https://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2020 )

It might not be a bad year to qualify for Europa, since a second pandemic spike anywhere on the continent may result in a shortened competition, but clubs would still get a fair share of ranking points for the season

The only different between this coming season and previous EL seasons is that all qualifying rounds are straight knockout games instead of two legs.

2020/21 UEFA Europa League: all you need to know | UEFA Europa League

What are the match dates? Where is the 2021 final?

www.uefa.com

And of course from the 21/22 season the EL is cut to 32 teams and ditches the extra round so it had the same amount of games in it as the CL.

spursfan77 · Jul 13, 2020

MattPhilpott said:
Really not that opposed to a season or two in the EL at all!

I think the position that our team is currently in is a state of transition and regeneration, and the Europa League gives us a fantastic opportunity to do that...
With the PL and CL, every game is such high stakes, and rarely allows teams to experiment with young players and rotate...which I think has contributed to our large quantity of injuries over the last few years due to lack of depth..

The Group Stages (and arguably the last 32) gives you 6-8 games to really integrate youngsters into the team...the likes of Parrot, Skipp, Tanganga, Cirkin, Sess, White, allll could see some serious minutes and get more confidence and skill in their game.
It means as well that those long trips to Tbilisi, Moscow, Baku etc..gives us an opportunity to leave Kane, Son, Gio etc at home and give them rest that they need.

Looking at how Arsenal got Saka, Willock,
AMN, Nelson etc into the team, the EL played a big part in that...

Realistically, we are not good enough at the moment to win the CL, so having a good go at the EL for the next couple of years is an ideal situation for us I think!

Not for me. Back into the CL as soon as possible. Arsenal have been out of it for a few years now and it’s really been detrimental to them.

GLC10 · Jul 13, 2020

I'm sorry, but I don't understand. What has to happen for us to classify EL? Obviously win our games.

danielneeds · Jul 13, 2020

GLC10 said:
I'm sorry, but I don't understand. What has to happen for us to classify EL? Obviously win our games.

If City beat Arsenal in the FA Cup semi, then we have to finish 7th or above.

GLC10 · Jul 13, 2020

Thank you, I think we have a lot of chances, you just have to win wednesday and wait. Another result other than a victory leaves us out of everything.

panoma · Jul 13, 2020

United losing to Palace and Wham and drawing against Leicester ending on 60 points.

Leicester losing to Sheffield and Chelsea while drawing against United ending on 60 points.

Us winning our last 3 and ending on 61?

There's a chance boys.

Snarfalicious · Jul 13, 2020

I, for one, would be excited about Europa. Bring along some of the youth (Cirkin, Parrott, Skipp, White, Tanganga, etc.) and make a real go of it. We've got a manager who has won it twice. We need to be playing in Champions League, but if Europa is all we can get, so be it. Let's get a trophy. Also, my workdays are typically light on Thursdays so it really meshes well with my schedule.

C0YS · Jul 13, 2020

C0YS said:
We should still try for 5th until it's mathematically impossible. To not do so would suggest a very poor mentality.

Is it possible? Just. To set things straight we will almost certainly need to win all our games.

So I'm not going to focus on us, because what we need to do is simple. So what about the competition, and what points can we expect.

~~Assuming a win against Bournemouth~~

Leicester
7 points ahead of us (effectively 8 with goal difference) with 3 games left.
They need 2 points to finish ahead of us.
predicted points estimate = 1-6 points, probably around 3.

My prediction
Bournmouth - 3 points 0 points
Sheffield United - 1 - 3 points
Tottenham - 0 points (again, in this hypothetical scenario I am assuming we win all our games!)
Man Utd - 0-1 point

So even in the lower estimate we are unlikely to close the gap. Leicester are not on good form at all, even including the palace result. But I just cant see them losing to Bournemouth, if they win that game, they will do enough. If they loose, then things might get interesting. We will find out very soon.

Man Utd
ahead of us by 7 points (effectively 8 with gd) with 3 games left.
They need 2 points to finish ahead of us
predicted points estimate: 6-15 points. My prediction 11 points

My prediction
Villa - 3 points 3 points
Southampton 1-3 points
Palace - 1-3 points
Chelsea - 0-3 points
Leicester - 1-3 points

So, I actually think Man Utd are more likely to be catch up-able that Leicester. It would require them to have a dip in form. Again if they fail to win against Villa things will look more rosy, but the lower estimate leaves very little leeway.

Wolves
ahead of us by 3 (we currently have effectively a better goal difference, but it's tight)
7 points needed to guarantee finishing ahead of us.
Predicted points estimate: 3-11 points. My prediction 8 points

Sheffield Utd 1point 0 points
Everton 0-3 points
Burnley 1-3 points
Crystal Palace 1-3
Chelsea 0-1

Wolves have a hard run coming up, the easiest game on paper is Palace, and Palace are a very unpredictable team. If we win all our games I suspect we will finish above Wolves.

Sheffield United
Ahead of us by 2 points (we have a better goal difference)
8 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 2-9 points. Prediction 6

Leicester 0-3 points
Everton 1-3 points
Southampton 1-3 points

Very possible to go ahead, but I could also see them win those three games, but suspect they will drop at least two points

Chelsea
Ahead of us by 8 points (we have effectively better goal difference than them, but its close)
2 points needed to finish ahead of us
Predicted points estimate 3-7 points My prediction 4 points

Norwich 3 points
Man utd 0-3 points
Liverpool 0-1 points

Chelsea are not safe. Norwich is their make or break game. Lose that and they might be in trouble. Don't think it is realistic to pass them though.

Some cause for optimism. The teams ahead all have a very difficult last two fixtures. This is good because pressure can really do some strange things. If Leicester or Man utd go into the last two fixtures with 5 points separating us and them we have a chance (though they would probably play out for a tactical draw come the last game!) because these are tough fixtures and could easily end up with two loses. For Leicester we could even extend that to Sheffield Utd. If Leicester are I would say, 7 points ahead of us come the Sheffield utd game the pressure could see a collapse.

The problem is the fixtures before hand are more straightforward and they need to loose a lot of points to really make this viable. Similarly, winning all our games will be tough. Winning against Arsenal is very important, if we can make the Leicester game a bit of a cup final then we stand a small chance.

A set of bad results in the next game for both teams will change the complexion. I have them both as bankers, and they should be. If they get through those games ok, I see it as basically impossible, if they stumble we might just be able to slip in, if every little coin toss goes are way. All I really want is for us to apply as much pressure as possible to those ahead of us and try and if we are within 5 points in the last two games, just cross our fingers and hope the pressure of needing just that one point will be too much for them. It wont, but I would be proud of how we finished if we get it to that point.

The man utd result keeps things interesting and gives us a bit more of a chance for CL. Though a win against palace would end any chance. We still have a very slight chance to reach the top 4 For this to happen. We realistically need Chelsea to fail to win against Norwich and/or Man utd to fail to win at Palace. We need Leicester to crumble. The odds are very slim though, while 5th it is a benefit to have so many teams play each other, 4th it becomes more negative. We need, probably Man utd or Chelsea to take control and beat the competition, and the other two to fail to pick up more than 2 points, which is possible as no one has an easy run, but it would take a collapse of epic proportions for this to happen.

C0YS · Jul 13, 2020

Btw it is pretty pathetic that only 2 teams will now finish with over 70 points this season. Last time any less than 5 clubs hit that figure was 15/16 with 3.

C0YS · Jul 13, 2020

C0YS said:
The man utd result keeps things interesting and gives us a bit more of a chance for CL. Though a win against palace would end any chance. We still have a very slight chance to reach the top 4 For this to happen. We realistically need Chelsea to fail to win against Norwich and/or Man utd to fail to win at Palace. We need Leicester to crumble. The odds are very slim though, while 5th it is a benefit to have so many teams play each other, 4th it becomes more negative. We need, probably Man utd or Chelsea to take control and beat the competition, and the other two to fail to pick up more than 2 points, which is possible as no one has an easy run, but it would take a collapse of epic proportions for this to happen.

I don't know why these optimistic ratings are beginning to annoy me a little. Not much but..

Partly I think it's because it promotes negativity, and partly because this post is not saying one way or another. It is just a post aimed to inform. And it even says that it would take something 'of epic proportions' for this to happen, as essentially, if 2 out of 3 teams win a single game it's mathematically gone.

dirtyh · Jul 13, 2020

i reckon jose will give the europa a serious shot if we're in it. hated the fact that we'd always get so far in it then throw it away at the sharp end simply to prioritise the league

slartibartfast · Jul 13, 2020

dirtyh said:
i reckon jose will give the europa a serious shot if we're in it. hated the fact that we'd always get so far in it then throw it away at the sharp end simply to prioritise the league

Especially now theres a CL spot at stake. Agree he would prioritise it.
And the domestic cups as well.
Thats one thing about Pochs reign that really fked me off, his total disdain and dismisal of domestic trophies. Some of the comments he made were infuriating.

Cochise · Jul 13, 2020

We need to hope that Leicester don't pick up any points, Chelsea need to beat Wolves and Sheffield UTD need to drop points against Southampton or Everton for us to grab 5th, 6th or 7th. That's on top of us winning our 3 remaining fixtures.

Essentially the Leicester game could be the much fated "6 pointer".

Yiddo100 · Jul 13, 2020

I’m an optimist but even I know top 4 is not happening

slartibartfast · Jul 13, 2020

I really think we'll do it.
After that Arsenal performance I just cant see us finishing in the bottom half. :sneaky:

fishhhandaricecake · Jul 13, 2020

slartibartfast said:
Especially now theres a CL spot at stake. Agree he would prioritise it.
And the domestic cups as well.
Thats one thing about Pochs reign that really fked me off, his total disdain and dismisal of domestic trophies. Some of the comments he made were infuriating.

Jose must make his n.o1 Priority
More than anything else... DO NOT RENEW VORMS CONTRACT and we might then have a chance in a cup completion.

Saoirse · Jul 14, 2020

C0YS said:
The man utd result keeps things interesting and gives us a bit more of a chance for CL. Though a win against palace would end any chance. We still have a very slight chance to reach the top 4 For this to happen. We realistically need Chelsea to fail to win against Norwich and/or Man utd to fail to win at Palace. We need Leicester to crumble. The odds are very slim though, while 5th it is a benefit to have so many teams play each other, 4th it becomes more negative. We need, probably Man utd or Chelsea to take control and beat the competition, and the other two to fail to pick up more than 2 points, which is possible as no one has an easy run, but it would take a collapse of epic proportions for this to happen.

Even a Chelsea draw with Norwich wouldn't help sadly because of their goal difference, they'd have to lose every game for us to catch them. United having a sudden, total collapse then drawing with Leicester is probably the best chance, and we've got to fight to win every game and see what happens, but it is realistically well under 1% as much as it's a fun possibility to entertain!

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